PSG vs OGC
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Nice · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 72.8% fair 1.37
Draw 16.1% fair 6.22
OGC win 11.1% fair 9.00
Expected Goals
PSG
2.57
—
0.78
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.0% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 OGC | 11.6% | |
| PSG 3-0 OGC | 9.9% | |
| PSG 2-1 OGC | 9.0% | |
| PSG 1-0 OGC | 9.0% | |
| PSG 3-1 OGC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).