PSG vs PFC
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
PSG win 65.9% fair 1.52
Draw 18.6% fair 5.38
PFC win 15.5% fair 6.44
Expected Goals
PSG
2.39
—
0.98
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.5% | fair 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 PFC | 9.8% | |
| PSG 2-1 PFC | 9.6% | |
| PSG 1-0 PFC | 8.2% | |
| PSG 1-1 PFC | 8.1% | |
| PSG 3-0 PFC | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).