PSG vs PFC
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 63.5% fair 1.58
Draw 19.7% fair 5.07
PFC win 16.8% fair 5.95
Expected Goals
PSG
2.23
—
0.99
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.6% | fair 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 PFC | 9.9% | |
| PSG 2-1 PFC | 9.8% | |
| PSG 1-0 PFC | 8.9% | |
| PSG 1-1 PFC | 8.8% | |
| PSG 3-0 PFC | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).