PSG vs STR
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 67.3% fair 1.48
Draw 17.6% fair 5.69
STR win 15.1% fair 6.63
Expected Goals
PSG
2.55
—
1.06
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.8% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.2% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-1 STR | 9.3% | |
| PSG 2-0 STR | 8.8% | |
| PSG 3-1 STR | 7.9% | |
| PSG 3-0 STR | 7.5% | |
| PSG 1-1 STR | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).