PSG vs TFC
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 64.7% fair 1.54
Draw 19.3% fair 5.19
TFC win 16.0% fair 6.26
Expected Goals
PSG
2.27
—
0.97
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 TFC | 10.1% | |
| PSG 2-1 TFC | 9.8% | |
| PSG 1-0 TFC | 8.9% | |
| PSG 1-1 TFC | 8.6% | |
| PSG 3-0 TFC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).