PSG vs EST
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
PSG win 73.2% fair 1.37
Draw 15.4% fair 6.50
EST win 11.4% fair 8.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 79.0% / 13.2% / 7.8%.
Expected Goals
PSG
2.80
—
0.79
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.5% | fair 3.28 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 EST | 10.8% | |
| PSG 3-0 EST | 10.1% | |
| PSG 2-1 EST | 8.5% | |
| PSG 3-1 EST | 8.0% | |
| PSG 1-0 EST | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).