PSG vs EST
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PSG win 75.7% fair 1.32
Draw 14.5% fair 6.90
EST win 9.8% fair 10.19
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 80.4% / 12.7% / 6.9%.
Expected Goals
PSG
2.79
—
0.71
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.9% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.1% | fair 3.11 |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-0 EST | 11.8% | |
| PSG 3-0 EST | 10.9% | |
| PSG 1-0 EST | 8.4% | |
| PSG 2-1 EST | 8.4% | |
| PSG 3-1 EST | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 7.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).