REN vs AJA
Rennes (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
REN win 55.9% fair 1.79
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
AJA win 22.0% fair 4.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.6% / 21.4% / 20.9%.
Expected Goals
REN
2.00
—
1.13
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 AJA | 9.9% | |
| REN 1-1 AJA | 9.9% | |
| REN 2-0 AJA | 8.8% | |
| REN 1-0 AJA | 8.7% | |
| REN 3-1 AJA | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).