REN vs AJA
Rennes (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 4-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.06 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
REN win 55.5% fair 1.80
Draw 21.4% fair 4.67
AJA win 23.2% fair 4.32
Expected Goals
REN
2.11
—
1.26
AJA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): REN ×1.064 (matched 11), AJA ×1.100 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.4% | fair 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 AJA | 9.6% | |
| REN 1-1 AJA | 9.1% | |
| REN 2-0 AJA | 7.6% | |
| REN 1-0 AJA | 7.2% | |
| REN 3-1 AJA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).