REN vs SB29
Rennes (home) vs Brest · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
REN win 56.0% fair 1.79
Draw 20.9% fair 4.79
SB29 win 23.1% fair 4.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.7% / 20.1% / 22.2%.
Expected Goals
REN
2.23
—
1.33
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.1% | fair 3.22 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 SB29 | 9.4% | |
| REN 1-1 SB29 | 8.5% | |
| REN 2-0 SB29 | 7.1% | |
| REN 3-1 SB29 | 7.0% | |
| REN 1-0 SB29 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).