REN vs LMFC
Rennes (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
REN win 62.8% fair 1.59
Draw 19.3% fair 5.19
LMFC win 18.0% fair 5.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.3% / 17.6% / 15.2%.
Expected Goals
REN
2.46
—
1.10
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.0% | fair 3.23 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 LMFC | 9.5% | |
| REN 2-0 LMFC | 8.6% | |
| REN 3-1 LMFC | 7.8% | |
| REN 1-1 LMFC | 7.7% | |
| REN 3-0 LMFC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).