REN vs RCL
Rennes (home) vs Lens · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
REN win 38.4% fair 2.60
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
RCL win 39.3% fair 2.54
Expected Goals
REN
1.77
—
1.84
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.0% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.0% | fair 3.33 |
| Both teams to score | 69.8% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 1-1 RCL | 8.8% | |
| REN 1-2 RCL | 8.1% | |
| REN 2-1 RCL | 7.8% | |
| REN 2-2 RCL | 7.2% | |
| REN 1-3 RCL | 5.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).