REN vs LIL
Rennes (home) vs Lille · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
REN win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
LIL win 36.5% fair 2.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.9% / 23.5% / 37.5%.
Expected Goals
REN
1.60
—
1.57
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 1-1 LIL | 10.5% | |
| REN 2-1 LIL | 8.4% | |
| REN 1-2 LIL | 8.3% | |
| REN 1-0 LIL | 6.7% | |
| REN 2-2 LIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).