REN vs LIL
Rennes (home) vs Lille · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
REN win 41.1% fair 2.43
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
LIL win 35.0% fair 2.86
Expected Goals
REN
1.62
—
1.50
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 1-1 LIL | 10.7% | |
| REN 2-1 LIL | 8.7% | |
| REN 1-2 LIL | 8.1% | |
| REN 1-0 LIL | 7.1% | |
| REN 0-1 LIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).