REN vs FCL
Rennes (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
REN win 51.0% fair 1.96
Draw 22.6% fair 4.42
FCL win 26.3% fair 3.80
Expected Goals
REN
1.92
—
1.31
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 1-1 FCL | 9.9% | |
| REN 2-1 FCL | 9.6% | |
| REN 1-0 FCL | 7.6% | |
| REN 2-0 FCL | 7.3% | |
| REN 1-2 FCL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).