REN vs OM
Rennes (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
REN win 39.3% fair 2.54
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
OM win 38.3% fair 2.61
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.5% / 21.8% / 39.7%.
Expected Goals
REN
1.80
—
1.83
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.3% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.7% | fair 3.36 |
| Both teams to score | 70.1% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 1-1 OM | 8.7% | |
| REN 1-2 OM | 8.0% | |
| REN 2-1 OM | 7.9% | |
| REN 2-2 OM | 7.2% | |
| REN 1-3 OM | 4.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).