REN vs ASM
Rennes (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
REN win 45.5% fair 2.20
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
ASM win 32.5% fair 3.08
Expected Goals
REN
1.97
—
1.66
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.8% | fair 3.36 |
| Both teams to score | 69.6% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 1-1 ASM | 8.7% | |
| REN 2-1 ASM | 8.6% | |
| REN 1-2 ASM | 7.2% | |
| REN 2-2 ASM | 7.1% | |
| REN 3-1 ASM | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).