REN vs ASM
Rennes (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
REN win 47.3% fair 2.12
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
ASM win 31.0% fair 3.23
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.6% / 21.1% / 31.3%.
Expected Goals
REN
2.07
—
1.65
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.2% | fair 3.55 |
| Both teams to score | 70.6% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 ASM | 8.6% | |
| REN 1-1 ASM | 8.3% | |
| REN 2-2 ASM | 7.1% | |
| REN 1-2 ASM | 6.8% | |
| REN 3-1 ASM | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).