REN vs PSG
Rennes (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
REN win 29.2% fair 3.43
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
PSG win 49.2% fair 2.03
Expected Goals
REN
1.49
—
2.07
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.0% | fair 3.22 |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 1-2 PSG | 9.1% | |
| REN 1-1 PSG | 8.8% | |
| REN 2-2 PSG | 6.8% | |
| REN 2-1 PSG | 6.5% | |
| REN 1-3 PSG | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).