REN vs STR
Rennes (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 3-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.03 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
REN win 52.9% fair 1.89
Draw 20.7% fair 4.82
STR win 26.4% fair 3.79
Expected Goals
REN
2.25
—
1.54
STR
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): REN ×1.029 (matched 10), STR ×0.900 (matched 8). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.9% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.1% | fair 3.69 |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 STR | 8.8% | |
| REN 1-1 STR | 7.8% | |
| REN 2-2 STR | 6.8% | |
| REN 3-1 STR | 6.6% | |
| REN 1-2 STR | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).