REN vs STR
Rennes (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
REN win 48.2% fair 2.07
Draw 22.0% fair 4.56
STR win 29.8% fair 3.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.7% / 21.4% / 30.0%.
Expected Goals
REN
2.04
—
1.57
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.1% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 STR | 8.8% | |
| REN 1-1 STR | 8.7% | |
| REN 2-2 STR | 6.9% | |
| REN 1-2 STR | 6.8% | |
| REN 3-1 STR | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).