REN vs TFC
Rennes (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
REN win 50.5% fair 1.98
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
TFC win 27.6% fair 3.63
Expected Goals
REN
2.03
—
1.44
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.6% | fair 3.06 |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 TFC | 9.2% | |
| REN 1-1 TFC | 9.1% | |
| REN 2-2 TFC | 6.7% | |
| REN 1-2 TFC | 6.6% | |
| REN 2-0 TFC | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).