REN vs EST
Rennes (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
REN win 65.0% fair 1.54
Draw 18.5% fair 5.40
EST win 16.4% fair 6.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.5% / 17.2% / 14.2%.
Expected Goals
REN
2.49
—
1.06
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.3% | fair 3.20 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| REN 2-1 EST | 9.4% | |
| REN 2-0 EST | 8.9% | |
| REN 3-1 EST | 7.8% | |
| REN 1-1 EST | 7.6% | |
| REN 3-0 EST | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: REN goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).