STR vs AJA
Strasbourg (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 53.1% fair 1.88
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
AJA win 24.4% fair 4.10
Expected Goals
STR
1.94
—
1.22
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 AJA | 10.0% | |
| STR 2-1 AJA | 9.7% | |
| STR 1-0 AJA | 8.2% | |
| STR 2-0 AJA | 8.0% | |
| STR 3-1 AJA | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).