STR vs AJA
Strasbourg (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
STR win 52.8% fair 1.89
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
AJA win 24.1% fair 4.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.0% / 22.7% / 23.3%.
Expected Goals
STR
1.86
—
1.15
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.2% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 AJA | 10.6% | |
| STR 2-1 AJA | 9.8% | |
| STR 1-0 AJA | 9.2% | |
| STR 2-0 AJA | 8.6% | |
| STR 3-1 AJA | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).