STR vs SB29
Strasbourg (home) vs Brest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 49.6% fair 2.01
Draw 22.1% fair 4.52
SB29 win 28.2% fair 3.54
Expected Goals
STR
2.00
—
1.45
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | fair 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 SB29 | 9.2% | |
| STR 2-1 SB29 | 9.2% | |
| STR 1-2 SB29 | 6.7% | |
| STR 2-2 SB29 | 6.7% | |
| STR 1-0 SB29 | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).