STR vs SB29
Strasbourg (home) vs Brest · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
STR win 53.2% fair 1.88
Draw 21.7% fair 4.61
SB29 win 25.1% fair 3.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.5% / 21.0% / 24.4%.
Expected Goals
STR
2.09
—
1.35
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.2% | fair 3.01 |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 2-1 SB29 | 9.5% | |
| STR 1-1 SB29 | 9.0% | |
| STR 2-0 SB29 | 7.0% | |
| STR 1-0 SB29 | 6.7% | |
| STR 3-1 SB29 | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).