STR vs LMFC
Strasbourg (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 58.7% fair 1.70
Draw 20.6% fair 4.85
LMFC win 20.7% fair 4.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.3% / 19.6% / 19.1%.
Expected Goals
STR
2.24
—
1.18
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.5% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 2-1 LMFC | 9.7% | |
| STR 1-1 LMFC | 8.6% | |
| STR 2-0 LMFC | 8.2% | |
| STR 1-0 LMFC | 7.3% | |
| STR 3-1 LMFC | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).