STR vs RCL
Strasbourg (home) vs Lens · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
STR win 32.6% fair 3.07
Draw 22.6% fair 4.43
RCL win 44.9% fair 2.23
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.9% / 22.1% / 47.1%.
Expected Goals
STR
1.52
—
1.92
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.2% | fair 3.01 |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 RCL | 9.4% | |
| STR 1-2 RCL | 9.0% | |
| STR 2-1 RCL | 7.1% | |
| STR 2-2 RCL | 6.8% | |
| STR 0-1 RCL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).