STR vs LIL
Strasbourg (home) vs Lille · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 35.4% fair 2.83
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
LIL win 39.9% fair 2.51
Expected Goals
STR
1.39
—
1.54
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 LIL | 11.4% | |
| STR 1-2 LIL | 8.8% | |
| STR 0-1 LIL | 8.3% | |
| STR 2-1 LIL | 7.9% | |
| STR 1-0 LIL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).