STR vs FCL
Strasbourg (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 44.7% fair 2.24
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
FCL win 31.0% fair 3.23
Expected Goals
STR
1.65
—
1.34
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 FCL | 11.1% | |
| STR 2-1 FCL | 9.2% | |
| STR 1-0 FCL | 8.3% | |
| STR 1-2 FCL | 7.5% | |
| STR 2-0 FCL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).