STR vs FCL
Strasbourg (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
STR win 48.0% fair 2.08
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
FCL win 28.9% fair 3.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.5% / 22.6% / 28.9%.
Expected Goals
STR
1.85
—
1.39
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 FCL | 10.1% | |
| STR 2-1 FCL | 9.3% | |
| STR 1-0 FCL | 7.2% | |
| STR 1-2 FCL | 7.0% | |
| STR 2-0 FCL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).