STR vs OL
Strasbourg (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 35.2% fair 2.84
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
OL win 40.7% fair 2.46
Expected Goals
STR
1.44
—
1.63
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 OL | 10.9% | |
| STR 1-2 OL | 8.9% | |
| STR 2-1 OL | 7.9% | |
| STR 0-1 OL | 7.5% | |
| STR 1-0 OL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).