STR vs OM
Strasbourg (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 36.3% fair 2.76
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
OM win 41.8% fair 2.39
Expected Goals
STR
1.76
—
1.96
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.9% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.1% | fair 3.56 |
| Both teams to score | 71.2% | fair 1.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 OM | 8.3% | |
| STR 1-2 OM | 8.2% | |
| STR 2-1 OM | 7.3% | |
| STR 2-2 OM | 7.2% | |
| STR 1-3 OM | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).