STR vs ASM
Strasbourg (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
STR win 44.5% fair 2.25
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
ASM win 33.2% fair 3.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.4% / 21.7% / 33.9%.
Expected Goals
STR
1.94
—
1.68
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.1% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.9% | fair 3.35 |
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 ASM | 8.7% | |
| STR 2-1 ASM | 8.5% | |
| STR 1-2 ASM | 7.3% | |
| STR 2-2 ASM | 7.1% | |
| STR 3-1 ASM | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).