STR vs OGC
Strasbourg (home) vs Nice · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 54.0% fair 1.85
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
OGC win 23.6% fair 4.23
Expected Goals
STR
1.96
—
1.19
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 OGC | 10.0% | |
| STR 2-1 OGC | 9.8% | |
| STR 1-0 OGC | 8.4% | |
| STR 2-0 OGC | 8.2% | |
| STR 3-1 OGC | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).