STR vs PFC
Strasbourg (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 42.7% fair 2.34
Draw 23.6% fair 4.25
PFC win 33.8% fair 2.96
Expected Goals
STR
1.70
—
1.51
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 PFC | 10.3% | |
| STR 2-1 PFC | 8.8% | |
| STR 1-2 PFC | 7.8% | |
| STR 1-0 PFC | 6.8% | |
| STR 2-2 PFC | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).