STR vs PSG
Strasbourg (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
STR win 27.2% fair 3.68
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
PSG win 51.2% fair 1.95
Expected Goals
STR
1.37
—
2.08
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-2 PSG | 9.4% | |
| STR 1-1 PSG | 9.0% | |
| STR 0-2 PSG | 6.8% | |
| STR 0-1 PSG | 6.6% | |
| STR 1-3 PSG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).