STR vs PSG
Strasbourg (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 1-3 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
STR win 28.3% fair 3.53
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
PSG win 48.2% fair 2.07
Expected Goals
STR
1.24
—
1.79
PSG
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): STR ×0.900 (matched 9), PSG ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 PSG | 10.7% | |
| STR 1-2 PSG | 9.6% | |
| STR 0-1 PSG | 8.6% | |
| STR 0-2 PSG | 7.7% | |
| STR 2-1 PSG | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).