STR vs TFC
Strasbourg (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 44.0% fair 2.27
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
TFC win 32.5% fair 3.07
Expected Goals
STR
1.74
—
1.48
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 1-1 TFC | 10.3% | |
| STR 2-1 TFC | 8.9% | |
| STR 1-2 TFC | 7.6% | |
| STR 1-0 TFC | 7.0% | |
| STR 2-2 TFC | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).