STR vs EST
Strasbourg (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
STR win 58.8% fair 1.70
Draw 21.1% fair 4.74
EST win 20.0% fair 4.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.3% / 20.3% / 18.5%.
Expected Goals
STR
2.13
—
1.08
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| STR 2-1 EST | 9.9% | |
| STR 1-1 EST | 9.3% | |
| STR 2-0 EST | 9.1% | |
| STR 1-0 EST | 8.6% | |
| STR 3-1 EST | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: STR goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).