TFC vs SCO
Toulouse (home) vs Angers · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 53.4% fair 1.87
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
SCO win 22.6% fair 4.43
Expected Goals
TFC
1.73
—
1.00
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 SCO | 11.3% | |
| TFC 1-0 SCO | 11.3% | |
| TFC 2-1 SCO | 9.8% | |
| TFC 2-0 SCO | 9.8% | |
| TFC 0-1 SCO | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).