TFC vs SCO
Toulouse (home) vs Angers · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
TFC win 49.8% fair 2.01
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
SCO win 25.1% fair 3.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.6% / 24.9% / 24.5%.
Expected Goals
TFC
1.60
—
1.03
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 SCO | 11.9% | |
| TFC 1-0 SCO | 11.5% | |
| TFC 2-1 SCO | 9.5% | |
| TFC 2-0 SCO | 9.2% | |
| TFC 0-1 SCO | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).