TFC vs AJA
Toulouse (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 52.4% fair 1.91
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
AJA win 23.9% fair 4.18
Expected Goals
TFC
1.77
—
1.09
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 AJA | 11.1% | |
| TFC 1-0 AJA | 10.2% | |
| TFC 2-1 AJA | 9.8% | |
| TFC 2-0 AJA | 9.0% | |
| TFC 0-1 AJA | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).