TFC vs SB29
Toulouse (home) vs Brest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 23.3% fair 4.30
SB29 win 27.5% fair 3.63
Expected Goals
TFC
1.82
—
1.30
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 SB29 | 10.4% | |
| TFC 2-1 SB29 | 9.5% | |
| TFC 1-0 SB29 | 8.0% | |
| TFC 2-0 SB29 | 7.3% | |
| TFC 1-2 SB29 | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).