TFC vs HAC
Toulouse (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
TFC win 47.2% fair 2.12
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
HAC win 26.6% fair 3.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.6% / 26.2% / 26.2%.
Expected Goals
TFC
1.47
—
1.02
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 HAC | 12.4% | |
| TFC 1-0 HAC | 12.2% | |
| TFC 2-1 HAC | 9.1% | |
| TFC 2-0 HAC | 9.0% | |
| TFC 0-1 HAC | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).