TFC vs LMFC
Toulouse (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 57.8% fair 1.73
Draw 21.7% fair 4.61
LMFC win 20.5% fair 4.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.2% / 20.9% / 18.9%.
Expected Goals
TFC
2.05
—
1.06
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 2-1 LMFC | 9.9% | |
| TFC 1-1 LMFC | 9.7% | |
| TFC 2-0 LMFC | 9.4% | |
| TFC 1-0 LMFC | 9.2% | |
| TFC 3-1 LMFC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).