TFC vs RCL
Toulouse (home) vs Lens · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 33.0% fair 3.03
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
RCL win 43.0% fair 2.32
Expected Goals
TFC
1.39
—
1.68
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 RCL | 10.8% | |
| TFC 1-2 RCL | 9.1% | |
| TFC 0-1 RCL | 7.8% | |
| TFC 2-1 RCL | 7.5% | |
| TFC 0-2 RCL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).