TFC vs LIL
Toulouse (home) vs Lille · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
TFC win 34.2% fair 2.92
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
LIL win 40.5% fair 2.47
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.6% / 25.2% / 42.2%.
Expected Goals
TFC
1.29
—
1.50
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 LIL | 11.9% | |
| TFC 0-1 LIL | 9.2% | |
| TFC 1-2 LIL | 8.9% | |
| TFC 1-0 LIL | 7.9% | |
| TFC 2-1 LIL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).