TFC vs FCL
Toulouse (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
FCL win 30.1% fair 3.32
Expected Goals
TFC
1.50
—
1.20
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 FCL | 12.1% | |
| TFC 1-0 FCL | 10.1% | |
| TFC 2-1 FCL | 9.1% | |
| TFC 0-1 FCL | 8.0% | |
| TFC 2-0 FCL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).