TFC vs OL
Toulouse (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 0-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
TFC win 37.8% fair 2.64
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
OL win 37.2% fair 2.69
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.7% / 24.8% / 38.5%.
Expected Goals
TFC
1.42
—
1.46
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.9% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 OL | 11.6% | |
| TFC 1-2 OL | 8.5% | |
| TFC 2-1 OL | 8.3% | |
| TFC 0-1 OL | 8.1% | |
| TFC 1-0 OL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).