TFC vs OL
Toulouse (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
TFC win 35.3% fair 2.83
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
OL win 39.6% fair 2.53
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.8% / 25.0% / 41.2%.
Expected Goals
TFC
1.34
—
1.50
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 OL | 11.8% | |
| TFC 1-2 OL | 8.8% | |
| TFC 0-1 OL | 8.8% | |
| TFC 2-1 OL | 7.9% | |
| TFC 1-0 OL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).