TFC vs OM
Toulouse (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 36.6% fair 2.73
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
OM win 40.3% fair 2.48
Expected Goals
TFC
1.61
—
1.75
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 OM | 9.8% | |
| TFC 1-2 OM | 8.6% | |
| TFC 2-1 OM | 7.9% | |
| TFC 2-2 OM | 6.9% | |
| TFC 0-1 OM | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).