TFC vs ASM
Toulouse (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 39.3% fair 2.55
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
ASM win 36.5% fair 2.74
Expected Goals
TFC
1.54
—
1.51
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 ASM | 11.0% | |
| TFC 2-1 ASM | 8.5% | |
| TFC 1-2 ASM | 8.3% | |
| TFC 1-0 ASM | 7.3% | |
| TFC 0-1 ASM | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).