TFC vs OGC
Toulouse (home) vs Nice · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 53.2% fair 1.88
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
OGC win 23.2% fair 4.30
Expected Goals
TFC
1.79
—
1.07
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 OGC | 11.0% | |
| TFC 1-0 OGC | 10.3% | |
| TFC 2-1 OGC | 9.8% | |
| TFC 2-0 OGC | 9.2% | |
| TFC 0-1 OGC | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).