TFC vs PFC
Toulouse (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 42.5% fair 2.35
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
PFC win 32.7% fair 3.06
Expected Goals
TFC
1.55
—
1.35
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 PFC | 11.5% | |
| TFC 2-1 PFC | 8.9% | |
| TFC 1-0 PFC | 8.5% | |
| TFC 1-2 PFC | 7.8% | |
| TFC 0-1 PFC | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).