TFC vs PSG
Toulouse (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 25.2% fair 3.97
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
PSG win 52.1% fair 1.92
Expected Goals
TFC
1.16
—
1.89
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 PSG | 10.4% | |
| TFC 1-2 PSG | 9.8% | |
| TFC 0-1 PSG | 8.9% | |
| TFC 0-2 PSG | 8.4% | |
| TFC 1-3 PSG | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).