TFC vs PSG
Toulouse (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
TFC win 24.9% fair 4.02
Draw 22.1% fair 4.52
PSG win 53.0% fair 1.89
Expected Goals
TFC
1.19
—
1.99
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 PSG | 9.9% | |
| TFC 1-2 PSG | 9.8% | |
| TFC 0-1 PSG | 8.3% | |
| TFC 0-2 PSG | 8.3% | |
| TFC 1-3 PSG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).