TFC vs REN
Toulouse (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
TFC win 39.4% fair 2.54
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
REN win 37.0% fair 2.70
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.5% / 23.2% / 38.2%.
Expected Goals
TFC
1.63
—
1.62
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 REN | 10.3% | |
| TFC 2-1 REN | 8.3% | |
| TFC 1-2 REN | 8.3% | |
| TFC 2-2 REN | 6.8% | |
| TFC 1-0 REN | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).