TFC vs REN
Toulouse (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 40.2% fair 2.49
Draw 22.9% fair 4.36
REN win 36.9% fair 2.71
Expected Goals
TFC
1.73
—
1.69
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.6% | fair 2.98 |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 REN | 9.6% | |
| TFC 2-1 REN | 8.3% | |
| TFC 1-2 REN | 8.1% | |
| TFC 2-2 REN | 7.0% | |
| TFC 1-0 REN | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).