TFC vs STR
Toulouse (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TFC win 45.4% fair 2.20
Draw 23.3% fair 4.28
STR win 31.3% fair 3.20
Expected Goals
TFC
1.77
—
1.45
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.6% | fair 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 STR | 10.2% | |
| TFC 2-1 STR | 9.1% | |
| TFC 1-2 STR | 7.4% | |
| TFC 1-0 STR | 7.1% | |
| TFC 2-2 STR | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).