TFC vs STR
Toulouse (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
TFC win 41.5% fair 2.41
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
STR win 34.6% fair 2.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.0% / 23.5% / 35.5%.
Expected Goals
TFC
1.65
—
1.52
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 STR | 10.5% | |
| TFC 2-1 STR | 8.7% | |
| TFC 1-2 STR | 8.0% | |
| TFC 1-0 STR | 6.9% | |
| TFC 2-2 STR | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).