TFC vs EST
Toulouse (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
TFC win 53.9% fair 1.86
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
EST win 22.8% fair 4.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.1% / 22.7% / 21.3%.
Expected Goals
TFC
1.85
—
1.05
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| TFC 1-1 EST | 10.7% | |
| TFC 1-0 EST | 10.2% | |
| TFC 2-1 EST | 9.9% | |
| TFC 2-0 EST | 9.4% | |
| TFC 3-1 EST | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TFC goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).