EST vs SCO
Troyes (home) vs Angers · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 38.6% fair 2.59
Draw 26.9% fair 3.72
SCO win 34.5% fair 2.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.5% / 27.0% / 35.5%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.27
—
1.23
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 SCO | 12.8% | |
| EST 1-0 SCO | 10.5% | |
| EST 0-1 SCO | 10.1% | |
| EST 0-0 SCO | 8.2% | |
| EST 2-1 SCO | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).