EST vs AJA
Troyes (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 37.4% fair 2.67
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
AJA win 36.4% fair 2.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.0% / 26.2% / 37.8%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.30
—
1.33
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 AJA | 12.5% | |
| EST 0-1 AJA | 9.6% | |
| EST 1-0 AJA | 9.3% | |
| EST 1-2 AJA | 8.3% | |
| EST 2-1 AJA | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).